The following op-ed was written by the Global Maritime Forum’s CEO Johannah Christensen. It was originally published by The Financial Times’ Sustainable Views on 1 April 2025.
At a glance:
The International Maritime Organization will convene its latest Marine Environment Protection Committee in London this month
The maritime industry consumes more than 300mn tonnes of fuel a year
A fixed carbon levy on shipping that is applied globally will provide industry the confidence it needs to unlock trillions of dollars to decarbonise
There is an investment opportunity arising in shipping that is not about buying a ship when the asset price is low and selling it when market demand is high and prices are great.
This opportunity is not a classic “asset play” by market-savvy shipowners, but a long-term strategic investment in a transforming industry to reach zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It requires 176 countries to come to the right agreement in London, in April, but that may not be as unlikely as it seems with the current geopolitical backdrop.
The US administration has put shipbuilding back on its agenda, but this opportunity reaches well beyond bringing back shipbuilding—although constructing ships is part of it. This opportunity arises in the full value chain for the scalable fuels based on renewable electricity that are needed to power the shift to zero-emission shipping.
We have estimated this opportunity at more than $1tn between now and 2050—with most of that capital poured into fuel-production facilities and port-side infrastructure.
On land alone, these investments could create up to four million new jobs, stimulate innovation in the green hydrogen economy, and unlock new, strategic export sectors in countries that are well-endowed with renewable resources and well-placed along shipping routes, including developing economies such as India, Kenya, Brazil and South Africa (see related video).
Whether these opportunities emerge, however, depends on the choices that will be made when the International Maritime Organization convenes its Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting this month. As the UN’s regulatory body for shipping, the IMO has a unique responsibility: setting international rules for an industry that falls outside the scope of the Paris Agreement.
The 176 member states have tackled this challenge before, when few imagined it possible. In 2023, the IMO unveiled its revised greenhouse gas strategy, aiming for net zero emissions in shipping by 2050. The ambitious scope and goals of the strategy surprised the world and the maritime community. This body’s next challenge lies in reaching agreement on implementation.
A fixed levy to provide confidence
Among the central discussions at the upcoming IMO meeting will be the development of an economic measure—potentially a carbon levy or fuel standard with trading mechanisms. In discussions with our industry partners at our latest annual summit in Tokyo, the message became clear: a fixed levy that is applied globally is the option that will provide the confidence that industry needs to unlock its trillion-dollar opportunity.
In part, this is because a levy is a more bankable policy than other alternatives such as credit trading, which create uncertainty about the future value of investments in new fuels. But a levy can also be used to raise funds, money that can be recycled to support the new fuels on their path to competitiveness.
While other options including biofuels may be more competitive today, we have no doubt that large quantities of fuels based on renewable electricity will be crucial to getting the industry to zero emissions. The maritime industry currently consumes more than 300mn tonnes of fuel a year.
The IMO has the opportunity to jump-start the investment in new fuels to replace oil by agreeing to implement a global levy and targeted rewards for their use. Negotiators meeting in London should not let this opportunity pass them by.