New report reveals uneven progress towards shipping’s rapidly approaching 2030 zero-emission fuel target, due in part to delayed adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework
Failure to adopt a global regulatory framework last year has been the ‘single most transition-regressive event in the five years the report has been running’
Some indicators have seen major year-on-year advancements, while others have stagnated or even regressed
The 2030 target remains achievable, but only if lost momentum is regained quickly through adoption of the Net-Zero Framework this year, alongside accelerated industry and national action
New York, 22 September 2026 – The shipping industry is at greater risk than ever of missing its 2030 zero-emission fuel targets, due in large part to the regulatory uncertainty of the last 12 months, according to a new report.
Launched today at New York Climate Week, the fifth edition of the 'Climate action in shipping: Progress towards shipping's 2030 breakthrough' report tracks the sector's advancement towards its climate target of having at least 5-10% of the fuel used in international shipping come from scalable zero-emission sources (SZEF) by 2030. This is the estimated level of SZEF uptake needed to meet the ambitions laid out in the 2023 International Maritime Organization (IMO) Greenhouse Gas Strategy, and ultimately, the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal.
The latest edition of the report reveals mixed progress towards that swiftly approaching target, with multiple indicators demonstrating the flow-on effects of economic and political upheaval, the crisis in Hormuz, energy security and supply chain concerns, and the regulatory uncertainty caused by the failure to adopt the IMO's Net-Zero Framework (NZF) last year.
"Shipping’s energy transition is necessary and is going to happen. The obviously worsening impacts of climate change demand it. The 2030 breakthrough target was embraced by an industry that needs to start bringing tomorrow’s zero-emission fuels to market today if it is going to do its part,” said Jesse Fahnestock, director of decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum. “While the geopolitical turmoil of the past year has frustrated this process, with the right policy push, accelerated industry action can still deliver on this crucial ambition. Adoption of the Net-Zero Framework at the IMO would allow that acceleration to begin in earnest.”
Across the five key 'levers' used to assess the industry's progress (technology and supply, demand, finance, policy, and civil society), there have been multiple achievements. The past year has seen the world's first ammonia bunkering and sea trials, a 53% increase in the number of ports offering methanol bunkering (19 to 29), a tripling of methanol-capable in-service tonnage (the largest single-year capability gain ever), and the global shipping finance portfolio's greatest improvement in climate alignment on record.
"Shipping's pathway to zero remains achievable, investable, and aligned with development goals. Positive progress in technology and zero-emission fuel supply is encouraging, but investment decisions cannot afford to wait," said Dan Ioschpe, Climate High-Level Champion for COP30. "Demand for zero-emission shipping and financial flows directed toward zero-emission shipping are critical to accelerating the pace. Done right, climate action in shipping will increase competitiveness, improve energy security, and drive socio-economic development."
Despite this positive progress, other key levers needed to reach the 2030 breakthrough target (particularly across demand, finance, and policy) have either stagnated or worsened since the last report. With demand signals weakened by the widespread 'wait and see' approach to global regulation, the order book has regressed (SZEF-capable vessels fell from 9.5% to 5.7% of total tonnage on order), and shipping-specific sustainable debt issuance decreased from $3.4 billion in 2024 to $3.0 billion in 2025.
"The failure to adopt the NZF was the single most transition-regressive event we've seen in the five years this report has been running," said Dr Pinar Langer, research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute. "Reversing this momentum loss and securing regulatory certainty this year is therefore one of the most important next steps to give shipowners the confidence to order zero-emission vessels, lenders the incentive to invest in them, and charterers the impetus to pay for low-carbon shipping."
The report makes multiple recommendations, including that the IMO adopt the NZF 'as is' at the upcoming session in December, as this will create the global policy clarity and direction the ecosystem urgently needs. It also stresses the growing importance of national and regional policies that underpin SZEF production to de-risk first-mover action, regardless of what happens next at the IMO.
2026 progress tracker
Technology and SZEF supply – partially on track
Demand – not on track
Finance – not on track
Policy – not on track
Civil society – partially on track
The 'Climate action in shipping: Progress towards 2030's breakthrough' report is a joint effort between the UCL Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition, in the framework of the Marrakech Partnership.
Media contact: Molly P. Hannon – Senior communication manager and media relations lead
M: +45 53 76 67 87
E: mph@globalmaritimeforum.org
Definitions
Scalable zero-emissions fuel (SZEF)
The report sets several key conditions for SZEF. These include the need for the fuels to be:
scalable, such that the 200-300 million tonnes (Mt) of oil equivalent of current annual consumption can be matched in the foreseeable future;
producible with greenhouse gas intensity reductions of 90-100% relative to incumbent fossil-based fuels on a full life cycle (well-to-wake) basis; and
competitive in cost of production in the foreseeable future, assuming continued research and development and the adoption of viable policy support mechanisms.
The definition therefore excludes biofuels, less-polluting fossil fuels (including liquified natural gas), blue fuels (i.e., those derived from fossil fuel sources, such as hydrogen produced from natural gas), or applications of carbon capture. Options that are not at a high technology readiness level and have significant barriers to adoption are also excluded.
About the Global Maritime Forum
The Global Maritime Forum is an international not-for-profit organisation committed to shaping the future of global seaborne trade. It works by bringing together visionary leaders and experts who, through collaboration and collective action, strive to increase sustainable long-term economic development and human well-being. Established in 2017, the Global Maritime Forum is funded through a combination of grants and partner contributions. It operates independently of any outside influence and does not support individual technologies or companies. Most of its roughly 55-person staff is based in the organisation's headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark.
About the Getting to Zero Coalition
The Getting to Zero Coalition is a powerful alliance of more than 200 organisations (including over 180 private companies) within the maritime, energy, infrastructure, and finance sectors. The Coalition is committed to getting commercially viable zero-emission vessels powered by zero-emission fuels into operation by 2030. Hitting this milestone is essential if we are to achieve maritime shipping’s moon-shot ambition of full decarbonisation by 2050.
About the UCL Energy Institute
The UCL Energy Institute hosts a world leading research group which aims to accelerate the transition to an equitable and sustainable energy and trade system within the context of the ocean. The Shipping and Oceans Research Group’s multi-disciplinary work on the shipping and ocean system leverages advanced data analytics, cutting-edge modelling, and rigorous research methods, providing crucial insights for decision-makers in both policy and industry. The group focuses on three core areas: analysing big data to understand drivers of historical emissions and wider environmental impacts, developing models and frameworks to explore energy and trade transition to a zero-emissions future, and conducting social science research to examine the policy and commercial structures that enable the decarbonisation of the shipping sector.
About the Marrakech Partnership and the Global Climate Action Agenda
The Marrakech Partnership is the primary mechanism connecting voluntary climate action from governments and non-state actors to the formal UN climate process, and the organising platform through which the Climate High-Level Champions lead the Global Climate Action Agenda. Its mission is to strengthen collaboration to lower emissions and increase resilience against climate impacts, through key objectives such as tripling renewable energy, halting deforestation, restoring land, designing climate-resilient health systems, managing sustainable water systems, and so much more. Progress is tracked in the Global Stocktake – a five-yearly check-in on progress toward the Paris Agreement.