Study shows South Africa-Europe shipping route could run on green ammonia by 2029

• New analysis reveals the South Africa-Europe iron-ore shipping route could feasibly deploy green ammonia-powered iron ore carriers from 2029 and reach full decarbonisation by 2035

• Announced green ammonia projects have potential to locally and competitively supply the corridor’s fuel needs, and Saldanha could become the corridor’s long-term bunkering hub

• Global and regional regulations may help create a business case for this corridor, although uncertainties around the development of regulations remain

• Additional action is needed by private and public stakeholders to address the remaining risks and gaps to launch the corridor on time

30 October 2025, Johannesburg – Ammonia-fueled bulk carriers could feasibly be deployed on the South Africa-Europe iron ore trade route as soon as 2029 and scale toward full decarbonisation by 2035, according to the Global Maritime Forum.

The feasibility study, produced in collaboration with a consortium created in 2023 (which includes Anglo American, CMB.TECH, Freeport Saldanha, VUKA Marine, and ENGIE), said the corridor linking Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape to the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands would be one of the first Global South-to-North green shipping routes.

Saldanha Bay, home to South Africa’s primary iron-ore export terminal, is already planning the development of ammonia production, alongside port upgrades to handle bunkering operations.

In the green corridor’s initial years, ammonia-fueled vessels would likely bunker in Rotterdam, which is one of the most mature ports in terms of its ammonia bunkering and safety frameworks. Meanwhile, Saldanha Bay will have the opportunity to build the infrastructure to become the long-term green ammonia production and bunkering hub for the corridor.

By 2035, the port could supply bunkering services to all corridor vessels locally, creating a dual-purpose facility that continues mineral exports while serving international shipping.

“This phased approach gives shipowners and fuel producers a clear timeline to work toward, and we now need coordinated action from policymakers and industry to make this a reality by 2029,” said Shanon Neumann, Associate: Investment Facilitation at Freeport Saldanha. “However, to help Saldanha Bay transition quickly, blending public and private funding can unlock investment in infrastructure and reduce the risks of early projects.”

Why it matters for South Africa

The World Bank and World Economic Forum have both previously identified South Africa as a prospective key player in fueling shipping’s decarbonisation. The green corridor could contribute towards turning this notion into a reality.

Announced green hydrogen projects near the ports of Boegoebaai, Saldanha, and Walvis Bay could meet the corridor’s fuel needs, including its high-demand scenario of 22 bulk carriers per annum by 2035. The possibility of such strong demand levels could mean a stronger business case for green hydrogen producers looking to secure enough offtake volumes to finalise investment decisions and accelerate new projects.

Add in the necessary financing, potential tax incentives, and port tariff discounts for fuel production and bunkering build-out at Freeport Saldanha, and South Africa could gain a competitive edge as an international bunker supplier. The country’s hydrogen sector may be able to contribute 3.6% to the country’s GDP by 2030, with shipping and steel well-positioned to become early offtakers of the gas and its derivatives.

This green shipping corridor offers the opportunity to strengthen South Africa’s export competitiveness, future-proof a strategic port, and support the country’s Just Energy Transition through local value chains, skills development, and community benefits.

Policy alignment equals a strong business case

Regional and global regulations could materially improve the business case for the corridor. Europe’s FuelEU Maritime greenhouse-gas intensity targets and Emissions Trading System levy, the latter to be fully phased in by 2026, narrow the cost gap between green ammonia and conventional fuels by more than 60% in modelled scenarios.

The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF), now set to be revisited in 2026 following the decision earlier this month to delay adoption, would further strengthen the case, with fuel standards, emissions targets, and market-based incentives that reward zero-emission fuels.

“With binding global regulations delayed for now, there remains a business case to be made for green ammonia on this corridor,” says Marieke Beckmann, Global Maritime Forum deputy director of decarbonisation. "The role of national and local governments becomes increasingly important in incentivising the adoption of scalable zero emission fuels. This, combined with EU measures, will help position South Africa as a competitive supplier of clean maritime fuel."

Next step: implementation

The Global Maritime Forum study provides a roadmap to making the corridor operational by 2029, including:

• Creating an enabling contracting environment to optimally and fairly allocate risks and rewards across the value chain.

• Engaging with South African government bodies and industry stakeholders to raise awareness of the corridor opportunity and the need for an enabling policy environment, and build momentum around it.

• Mobilising funding and incentives for corridor infrastructure that will contribute to Saldanha’s hydrogen hub and port development.

If implemented, the South Africa–Europe Iron Ore Green Corridor could become a model for an equitable, commercially viable zero-emission shipping corridor and a catalyst for South Africa’s hydrogen economy to unlock large-scale investment.

This report has been authored by the Global Maritime Forum and is based on a feasibility analysis conducted by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) with input and validation from the consortium members.

Media contact: Nicole Schlichting, (Interim) Senior Communications Manager – PR & Media

M: +45 31 26 19 25

E: nsc@globalmaritimeforum.org